I'm fond of beginning this post-summer report by citing Michael Crichton who once said that no one can actually predict a movie's box office, even though studios pay millions of dollars for people to do exactly that. In the end, there is always an X-Factor that cannot be seen in advance.
And this is especially true for me predicting this past summer's box office.
In terms of box office success, the numbers were a mixed bag. Last year, three of the Top Ten made over $300 million dollars. This year, three movies did that again. Also, the lowest grossing Top Ten movie made over $6 million less than last year's number 10 (and that gap could still widen). However, this year's Top Ten made overall $700 million less than last year's. In fact, the top 3 movies this summer each made more than last year's highest grossing summer movie (Lilo and Stitch). But especially, the box office was helped by Spider-Man: Brand New Day, which is still making money and has the potential to become the highest grossing film at the domestic box office of all time (not adjusted for inflation) and be the first movie to domestically gross $1 billion. We shall have to see.
Below are my predictions along with the actual box office numbers:
So as you can see, I was way off this year.
-I did not correctly guess the position of any of the Top Ten movies this year
-I predicted 8 out of the Top Ten, as I did last year. That is slightly better than my average.
So here are my conclusions.
WINNERS
1. Tom Holland and Spider-Man
I predicted that Brand New Day would be a hit, but I drastically underestimated how big of hit it was going to be. The last 3 MCU movies failed to make more than $275 million each, Brand New Day has not only surpassed them, but has more than these last three combined! I think this speaks to two things. The first is that the general audience has an emotional connection to Tom Holland's Spider-Man. He has been playing this character for 10 years and seven movies. Many young people grew up along with his Peter Parker and for that reason they were going to turn out for him. The second is that "superhero fatigue" is not a thing. People keep trying to make it a thing, but the fatigue is not with super hero movies per se. The problem is that they were not giving us a universally loved hero with a crowd-pleasing hero's journey in the same way as the classic MCU. But Brand New Day shows us that the audience is there.
Holland also is a big winner in general for starring in the top two movies of the summer, solidifying his presence at the box office. To be clear, it was not the star power of Tom Holland that is the main reason for the success of these films, but his exposure is being more and more associated with box office success.
2. Horror Movies
Two of the Top Ten movies were horror films. Every year this is my blind spot because I do not enjoy horror films. But I always underestimate their popularity. Although, I don't think anyone could have predicted the phenomenon of Obsession. It presented as just another generic horror film, and yet it went on to make $263 million on a budget of less than $1 million. That and Backrooms significantly over-performed.
3. Christopher Nolan
I've said before that Christopher Nolan is the only director who can still draw a huge audience on the use of his name alone. The Odyssey is not only Nolan's highest grossing film, but it outgrossed last year's top summer film. And even though the movie had a lot of controversy before it premiered, Nolan has built up enough good will with audiences that they will trust him to give them a great cinematic experience. And I don't see that changing any time soon.
LOSERS
1. DCU
Supergirl was a gigantic flop. That is not a good thing for only the second film in James Gunn's new DCU. Supergirl made about half of the box office as the MCU's second film, The Incredible Hulk. And that is NOT adjusted for inflation. For those who read my review, I quite enjoyed the movie. But I agree with the analysts who said that the movie was completely wrong in its marketing and focus. Supergirl was promoted towards women, but it was not feminine the way the Barbie Movie or The Devil Wears Prada 2 were. The promotional material also presented Kara as full of cynicism, which usually does not bode for an enjoyable movie experience. Contrast Tom Holland's Spider-Man with all of his utter sincerity and nobility to how Supergirl was advertised as a brash and drunk. Or you could even contrast Supergirl with how Wonder Woman was portrayed and promoted for her own first movie with all of the traditionally heroic tropes.
2. 1980's Nostalgia
He-Man was so big in the 80's, but he could not get a box office draw today (although I hear that Masters of the Universe is a big streaming hit). Star Wars had its first feature film in theaters in years and it is the lowest grossing live-action Star Wars film. While I also liked this movie quite a bit, I think we have to admit that Disney has damaged the Star Wars brand, seeing as there is an $800 million gap between The Force Awakens and this movie. And The End of Oak Street tried to capture the aesthetic and feel of the early 80's but could not find an audience either.
3. Comedies
No live-action comedy made it into the top ten, including The Breadwinner, Scary Movie, One Night Only, and Spa Weekend. Laughing together with an audience is one of the best theatrical experiences, but nothing seems to be pulling us all together in the realm of comedy.
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Last year, I noted that audience sales were less than the year before. Because of Spider-Man and The Odyssey, this year's box office is significantly higher. This speaks to my point last year that the audience wants to come to the movies and have the theatrical experience IF Hollywood gives them a product they want to see.
Thoughts?
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