I'm fond of beginning this post-summer report by citing Michael Crichton who once said that no one can actually predict a movie's box office, even though studios pay millions of dollars for people to do exactly that. In the end, there is always an X-Factor that cannot be seen in advance.
And this is especially true for me predicting this past summer's box office.
In terms of box office success, the numbers were a mixed bag. Last year, two of the Top Ten made over $300 million dollars. This year, three movies did that. Also, the lowest grossing Top Ten movie made over $30 million more than last year's number 10 (and that gap could still widen). However, this year's Top Ten made overall $300 million less than last year's. I think that is due to the fact that two of last year's films made over $600 million and none of this year's films could match that.
Below are my predictions along with the actual box office numbers:
So as you can see, I was way off this year.
-I did not correctly guess the position of any of the Top Ten movies this year
-I predicted 7 out of the Top Ten, as I did last year. That seems to be my average.
So here are my conclusions.
WINNERS
1. Franchise Movies
8 of the Top 10 movies, including the number 1, were movies that were sequels or part of an existing franchise. This is different than last year, when 7 of the Top 10 were non-franchise properties.
2. Horror Movies
Two of the Top Ten movies were horror films. Even though they were at the bottom of the list, this is a great success for them, since these movies tend to have much lower budgets, so their profit margins are very high.
3. Live Action Remakes
Lilo and Stitch won the summer and How To Train Your Dragon did well here and even better internationally. I think the advantage of a remake is that families can go see them and parents will be fairly sure that the content will be acceptable. That isn't always the case nowadays. These remakes are like comfort food... grandma's home recipe that feels a little different but reminds you of your experiences years earlier.
LOSERS
1. Franchise Movies
I know I said that they were the winners earlier. And in terms of box office placement, they are. But the reason that they are also losers is because they are getting a diminishing return. None of the Marvel movies made over $300 million. The last Jurassic World movie made less than the last three. Unadjusted for inflation, Superman is the highest grossing Superman movie, but when adjusting for inflation changes its standing. The final Mission: Impossible landed in about the middle of franchise grosses, but also had one of the largest budgets. Other franchises could get into the Top Ten like From the World of John Wick: Ballerina, Smurfs, I Know What You Did Last Summer, and Karate Kid Legends.
2. Comedies
No straight up comedies made the Top Ten. This is especially disappointing with the underperformance of The Naked Gun, which was one of the funnier movies this year that was trying to revive the genre.
3. Animation
Last year we had two animated movies in the Top Ten. This year: none. PIXAR's Elio was edged out of the bottom spot by Weapons. Other animated films like Bad Guys 2 didn't make a big dent. I'm not sure why this is, except that more parents are wary of the content in animated films.
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Last year, I noted the big gap in numbers between the top 5 and the bottom 5. This year, the films were closer in box office, but the overall ticket sales were less. I think last year's box office shows us that people will come to the movies if you give them something they want to see. The audience is there, but Hollywood needs to deliver.
Thoughts?
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