Sunday, April 22, 2018

Sunday Best: Summer Box Office Predictions 2018

With the opening of Avengers Infinity War later this week, we are officially in the Summer Movie Season.

Over at Screen Junkies, they have an annual tradition of making predictions of what the top ten highest grossing films of the Summer will be.  I find this a fascinating challenge and I am usually wrong.  In 2016, I got 6 out of 10 right.  Last year, I improved to 8 out of 10.  I'm hoping for an even better score this year.  But I could have just gotten lucky with a few choices last year.

The toughest ones for me to predict are the sleeper hits, but I guess that goes without saying.  I am always curious what film will break through the noise and have legs.  Some will open big and flame out.  But I can't always be sure who.

In 2015, we had a PIXAR movie, a Jurassic movie, an Avengers movie, and a Star Wars movie (though this last one was in the winter).  And now we have the same matchup this summer.

So with little hope of being correct, here are my predictions for the top grossers:

1.  Avengers: Infinity War

Even though Age of Ultron did not win the summer box office, I think build up to this one is unprecedented and they are spring-boarding for the biggest hit of the year so far: Black Panther

2.  Solo: A Star Wars Story
Solo A Star Wars Story poster.jpg

The last three Star Wars movies released in theaters were the highest grossing films of their year.  But between the blowback on the last two and the rumors about this one, I think this will get a healthy silver medal.

3.  The Incredibles 2

Finding Dory was a PIXAR sequel that ruled the summer box office a few years ago.  I think that The Incredibles has the same level of appeal.

4.  Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom
Jurassic World Fallen Kingdom.png

There hadn't been a Jurassic movie for decades until the first Jurassic World.  So I don't think this one will have the same draw, but it will be significant because of the brand name and Chris Pratt.

5.  Deadpool 2
Deadpool 2 poster.jpg
This, I think, will be the only R-rated film on this list.  The first one engendered a lot of good-will from its fan base and I think this one will perform very well too.

6.  Ant-Man and the Wasp
Ant-Man and the Wasp poster.jpg

I think that Infinity War will be such a big hit that people will be thirsting for any window into the aftermath in the MCU.  This will raise this movie up in potential box office.

7.  Disney's Christopher Robin
Christopher Robin teaser poster.jpg
Cinderella and Beauty and the Beast were gigantic live-action hits based on animated films.  And there is so much affection for Pooh in the general culture that I think that even adults will be drawn to the heart of this story.

8.  Mission: Impossible - Fallout

MI – Fallout.jpg
The last one in the series was the 5th highest grossing film of the summer it came out.  The competition is a little bit more fierce this year and Cruise may have to pick himself up out of the bomb of last year's The Mummy.

9.  Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation
Hotel Transylvania 3 (2018) Poster.jpg

This will be the all-ages alternative to The Incredibles.  I don't think that many adults will be interested in this like The Incredibles, but parents would be fine bringing their kids here.

10.  Ocean's 8

This movie looks like an actually fun heist movie and exciting enough to draw in a crowd.  So far the marketing campaign hasn't been antagonistic like the reboot of Ghostbusters.  If they maintain that good will, I think this will be a hit.


-Life of the Party
Life of the Party.png

There are no full-out comedies on my Top 10, because comedies haven't been doing very well at the theaters and humor is so subjective.  But this could be a crossover hit.

Tag (2018 film).png

As I noted with the last film, it will come down to whether or not this movie will make people laugh.  I know that sounds obvious, but comedies are sold on good feelings and word of mouth.

Uncle Drew
Uncle Drew film.jpg

This could bring together multiple demographics together if it is marketed smartly.

Skyscraper (2018) film poster.png

The Rock makes hits.  Never underestimate his star power.


No comments:

Post a Comment