Tonight are the Oscars.
This used to be my yearly Super Bowl. And while the bloom is off the rose, I still watch every year.
Once again, there are not many movies to root for. Wicked got some nominations, but most of the popular films as well as the movies I thought were good did not get a lot of love from the Academy. So this year we do not have Christopher Nolan and Oppenheimer to cheer on.
What is interesting is that the race is in a constant state of flux. Emilia Perez was nominated for the most awards. But all of the controversy surrounding it could make its chances diminish. Looking to the other awards shows as predictors (the Golden Globes, BAFTAS, Screen Actors Guild, etc), there have been so many inconsistencies that I honestly do not know what is going to happen for most awards. This should add some novelty to the evening.
But, as has been the case for the past few years, most people haven't seen most of the movies nominated. I usually try to see most of the nominees for best picture, but not this year. In fact, I've only seen the five movies mentioned above. Some of the other nominees sound interesting, but I could not bring myself to commit the time. And I only watched Conclave because my dad saw it an wanted to talk to me about it. I did see Emila Perez because I wanted to be able to write about it cogently and I wanted to see if it was as bad as everyone was saying (It's not. It's much, much worse).
Here are some of my main predictions:
Best Picture: Conclave
With Emilia Perez receding, I think Conclave comes out on top. It has a top-notch cast and it views the Catholic Church through a modern left-leaning political lens. It is one of those movies that people who don't know anything about Catholicism can watch and feel smart. If the Academy is feeling very much of an independent movie vibe, then I think Anora will win. But, from what I understand, The Brutalist was the most pretentious, so that may win.
Best Actor: Timothee Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
All the smart money is saying Adrian Brody will win for The Brutalist. I am going with my gut, though. Not only did I think Chalamet gave the best performance this year, but it is very hard to win two Oscars for Best Actor. If Brody did this, he would enter the ranks of only 9 actors to do this, including Tom Hanks, Anthony Hopkins, Daniel Day-Lewis, Jack Nicholson, Sean Penn, Gary Cooper, Spencer Tracy, Marlon Brando, and Dustin Hoffman
Best Actress: Demi Moore
Hollywood loves a comeback story, and this is a good one. She would have a better shot if this was a supporting actor category, where that award is often given as a result of a body of work. But I think Moore has a great shot at this tonight.
Best Supporting Actor/Actress: Kieran Culkin and Zoe Saldana
These are categories where I think there will be no surprises. These actors have cleaned up all throughout the awards season. I got around to seeing A Real Pain and Culkin does a great job of playing a character of such contradictions. Saldana was terrible in Emilia Perez, but that really wasn't her fault as the movie was a disaster. But she will probably win.
This is also the last chance to enter the Oscar Game. Just fill out the chart below. The winner will get bragging rights and a mention on this blog. And just to keep everything above board, I am publishing my votes for tonight as well.
Good luck and enjoy the Oscars tonight!
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