Michael Crichton once said that no one can actually predict a movie's box office, even though studios pay millions of dollars for people to do exactly that. In the end, there is always an X-Factor that cannot be seen in advance.
And this is especially true for me predicting this past summer's box office.
In terms of box office success, the numbers were much better than last year. In the Summer of 2021, no movie made over $200 million domestic. Last year, half of the Top 10 made over $300 million domestic. Rounding up, the top 6 biggest hits made that much.
Below are my predictions along with the actual box office numbers:
So as you can see, I was way off this year.
-Barbie was the highest grossing movie of the summer by over $200 million and I did not even have it in the Top Ten
-I predicted 7 out of the Top Ten.
-I did not correctly predict any of the movies in their proper spots
-I stupidly forgot to add Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 3 to my list. This was an oversight, but it threw off my entire grid.
So here are my conclusions.
WINNERS
1. Original Movies
4 of the Top 10 movies, including the number 1, were movies that were not sequels or part of an existing franchise (Barbie, Oppenheimer, Sound of Freedom, Elemental). I can't recall a time in recent memory when this happened.
2. Angel Studios
Even though the movie was made a few years ago but Fox, it was shelved by Disney until Angel Studios purchased it. The budget for the movie was a little less than $15 million, so I imagine that is around what they paid. As of now, the domestic box office is $181 million. It is unbelievable that this movie outgrossed and Indiana Jones film.
3. Grass Roots and Organic Marketing
Speaking of Sound of Freedom, this movie became such a big hit because it did a grass roots appeal to the underserved market of audience members. With that, the made the movie an act of support against child trafficking.
This summer also saw the "Barbenheimer" phenomenon. People online saw that Barbie and Oppenheimer were being released on the same day. The juxtaposition of these two tonal opposite films led to a lot of viral humor online, but also a great deal of interest. I can attest to the packed theaters during the entire week these movies premiered. This was something that no studio marketing department could have created and it shows the power of that a real cultural meme can have in the real world.
LOSERS
1. Franchises
The power of the franchise may be waning. A movie like Captain Marvel could make a world-wide box office of $1 billion on the strength of its connection to the Marvel franchise. But franchises, especially the older ones, are underperforming. While Guardians was in the top 3, it did less than many were expecting. Mission: Impossible, did not do nearly as well as I was predicting. Fast X did not even make it into the Top 10.
2. DC
DC released two movies this summer and they were both spectacular flops. I took a big chance on nostalgia carrying The Flash to 2nd place. But the movie (which I actually liked and saw twice in the theater) barely made $100 million domestic. Blue Beetle (which I also liked), was supposed to be the first film in the new DCU (although I think this was just something that James Gunn was saying in case it was a hit). But that film is hovering at less than half of The Flash's box office. We still have the Aquaman movie coming up, but I cannot predict how that will go. I think Gunn has his work cut out for him in bringing the hype for Superman Legacy. I can already predict that if incorporates The Authority in the movie in a significant way, he will sink the box office.
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An observation also is the gap between the top 5 and the bottom 5. Take a look at these numbers from Boxofficemojo.com
There is a nearly $100 million gap between #5 and #6.
The total revenue for the top 5 is $1.6 billion. The total revenue for the bottom 5 is $833 million. So you can see that the top half made 2 times as much as the bottom half. Fortunately, this all of the movies made at least $150 million. Last year, only the top 5 made at least that much each.
Thoughts?
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