In 2016, I got 6 out of 10 right. By 2017, I improved to 8 out of 10. Last year I made it to 9 out of 10 and my order of highest grossers was even more accurate.
I am not that confident about this year's list, but I am going to give it a try. This year, I'm betting big on Disney owning the summer. The one that is hardest for me to figure out is what effect putting The Lion King and Aladdin so close to each other will have on their respective box office takes.
1. Avengers: Endgame
This is a little bit of a cheat since as of this posting Endgame has already broken so many box office records. But it had to be put at the top because this is the movie that kicks off the season.
2. Toy Story 4
Of all the Disney movies coming out this year, I think this one has the most anticipation. Unlike The Lion King and Aladdin, we don't know what will be in store for our heroes. On top of that, the emotional connection that millions of movie-goers have with these characters makes this a must see for the summer. The last Toy Story made $415 million. Combined with the fact that Finding Dory made $486 million, I think this is a good bet.
3. The Lion King
Unlike Toy Story, we know exactly what we are going to get with this remake. This is a movie that has simply been transformed into a photo-realistic version of the original and there are many people who will simply enjoy the experience of seeing something familiar as if for the first time.
Robin Williams is irraplacable, but this movie should have enough nostalgia and energy to bring in an all-ages crowd. I put this under The Lion King, because the changes in casting here are significant. It shows great insight that Jon Favreau made sure to get James Earl Jones to once again play Mufasa. We will see if Will Smith can bring his own spin to the Genie.
5. Spider-Man: Far From Home
The previous Spider-Man made over $334 million. But I think that this one will top that because it is leaning so heavily into Endgame. Last year's Ant-Man and the Wasp, also came out after the Avengers movie, but it was not emotionally connected to the events of the story. This one could be a cathartic experience for audiences still reeling from Endgame
6. The Secret Life of Pets 2
I really did not care for this first film, but it made $368 million. This is a movie that is geared right towards little kids who ate it up the first time and I see no reason they won't go for it the second time around.
7. Fast and Furious Presents: Hobbs and Shaw
This is the first spin-off of the Fast and Furious franchise. Internationally, these are gigantic hits and the last movie in the franchise made $226 million. If you give Dwayne Johnson the right material, people will come and see his movies, as we saw with Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle. This looks like silly, high octane action that audience may eat up.
8. Men in Black: International
The reason I have this on the top ten is because of it's connection to the Marvel Cinematic Universe. The last MIB movie made the least at $179 million. I think this one will make slightly more as the two leads are the stars of the last Thor movie and they are also going to be riding the Endgame wave.
9. Godzilla: King of the Monsters
The last American Godzilla movie made $200 million. However, it's most immediate predecessor of this new shared universe, Kong: Skull Island, made $168 million. I think this will top Kong, but it will hover around the other Godzilla.
10. Dora and the Lost City of Gold
This is my wild card. It is dropping late in the summer with little competition and it just might pull in the little kids who remember Dora fondly and parent who think that their kids will like it since so many of them grew up with her.
ALTERNATES
X-Men: Dark Phoenix
Adjusted for inflation, X-Men: Apocalypse is the second lowest grossing X-Men movie. On top of that, this story was already done in X-Men: The Last Stand. It could ride some of the Endgame wave, but I don't see that happening.
Shaft
This mixture of action and comedy might hit just the right note for summer audiences. The R rating may be a problem for box office.
Yesterday
This might be the sleeper hit of the summer. It is such an original story and The Beatles's music is as enjoyable and popular as ever. This may bring in older and younger audiences alike.
Once Upon A Time in Hollywood
Taratino's last movie, The Hateful Eight, was a disappointment both commercially and artistically. However, his two previous bows made over $100 million each. Combine that with the star power of DiCaprio and Pitt together in a movie, this might break through the R-rating barrier and become a hit.
Pokemon was a phenomenon after my time. So I have a hard time wrapping my head around its popularity. But it is still big with kids and young adults. This one may push through, but I don't know if general audiences will be on board.
Thoughts?
No comments:
Post a Comment