After going over the movies that are coming out this summer, I always enjoy trying to predict the summer box office for the following year.
Michael Crichton once said that studios spend millions of dollars every year trying to predict box office. But in the end, it is all guess work. There is no magical formula and no one gets it right all the time.
That is certainly the case with me.
In 2016, I got 6 out of 10 right. By 2017, I improved to 8 out of 10. 2018 was my best year, where I made it to 9 out of 10 and my order of highest grossers was even more accurate. 2019 I did great with the top 7, but the bottom three I had all wrong. I didn't do it in 2020 because of the pandemic. 2021, my top 3 were all accurate. If Hotel Transylvania hadn't been pulled, I believe my top 5 would have been accurate. However I WAY over guessed the appeal of In the Heights and I underestimated Free Guy.
In 2022, I once again got 8 out of 10, but I only correctly predicted the #2 movie as Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness. I had no clue that Where the Crawdads Sing would make it to the top 10.
In 2023 and 2024, I got 7 out of 10, but I didn't correctly predict any in the correct position.
I am going to try again this year. I may be wrong about my number one and two, but we will see.
1. How to Train Your Dragon
The main thing I look for to top the box office is a family movie that parents feel safe in bringing their children to see. How to Train Your Dragon is an incredibly safe bet. Like the Lion King remake, I think that parents and children will greatly enjoy seeing the movie done in live action.
2. Jurassic World Rebirth
As bad as the last few movies in the franchise were they made a ton of money. And with this movie promising to be a new start, I think it will do just as well as the rest in the franchise.
3. Lilo & Stitch
Like How to Train Your Dragon, this should be a safe bet for families. The only reason I have it a little bit further down on the list is that Disney has lost some of its credibility in the last few years. We'll see if this restores it.
4. Superman
4. Superman
I am actually rooting for this movie to rank much higher on this list. But looking at where Man of Steel ranked in the box office and keeping in mind that there is a lot of superhero saturation, good word of mouth will be essential for this film.
I'm predicting that this one will do slightly better than the previous film because they are billing this as the final installment in the series, which may drive more business.
6. Thunderbolts
This movie is made up of mostly supporting characters and the MCU is a little bit on the wane. But I think that this will do decently.
7. Fantastic Four: First Steps
On Marvel is pushing this one very hard, but based on the box office for all of the other Fantastic Four films, I think this will do worse than Thunderbolts
8. From the World of John Wick: Ballerina
The insistence of putting John Wick in the title is clearly a business decision. John Wick is a dependable brand of action and they are hoping that this will transfer to this film. To be honest, it is working on me, because I want to see this as well.
9. Karate Kid: Legends
I think Cobrai Kai might have pushed interest in this movie and the action looks decent.
10. The Naked Gun
I have been waiting for a big comedy to dominate the box office. The teaser made me laugh a lot so I'm hoping this will be the one.
ALTERNATES
F1
The reason I didn't put this one higher because I wasn't sure how much interest there is in racing movies. I based the prediction on how Ford vs. Ferarri and Gran Turismo did.
28 Years Later
The last movie in the series did okay at the box office but not great. But if there is enough nostalgia, it might do better.
Thoughts?
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