Sunday, March 5, 2017

Sunday Best: Oscar Results 2017

So, how about those Oscars?

Here, once again were my predictions:

I wrote last week:

"I am going a little rogue here and predicting that Lion will win Best Picture.  This goes against all the other awards shows, but I am using the best model that predicted last year's Best Picture winner Spotlight that upset against The Revenant (two movie few people really care about anymore anyway, just saying).  And based on those predictors, Lion has the edge over La La Land.  I am going way out on a limb here and will probably be wrong, but I'll take the shot."

-it turns out I was correct about the upset, but wrong about the winning movie.  The insiders are saying that La La Land peaked too early with voters and was not the most talked-about movie when the time came to vote.  I have not seen Moonlight, but I get the feeling no one is going to care or remember the winner in a few years.

I wrote last week:

"Again, most of the trends are going to Casey Affleck, but since Denzel won the SAG award, I think he is going to get most of the actor votes."

-I missed this one.  I haven't seen either film, but Denzel did not look happy as Casey was getting his award.

I wrote last week:

"This should go to Arrival, but it is going to go to Moonlight.  For some reason, Moonlight was considered an Original Screenplay with the Writers Guild of America, but it is an Adapted Screenplay for the Oscars."

-I called this one.  Again, I haven't seen Moonlight, but Arrival had such a well-crafted screenplay that I cannot help feel still disappointed that I was correct.

I wrote last week:

"This will be Emma Stone's night.  Gosling will not win Best Actor.  And if I am right about Best Picture, La La Land will not be Best Picture.  So Stone will be the most recognizable winner for their film.  This gives me someone to root for because she was my pick for Best Actress for the Kal-El Awards.  I'm hoping the Academy finally gets one right."

-And they did.  Stone was fantastic.  

"La La Land will win all of the design and technical awards for which it is nominated.  It does a fine job in all of its categories, but it will overpower any of the better nominees."


"Of all the nominated films in the major categories, Hacksaw Ridge is the best that I have seen.  And while Mel Gibson has the Hollywood door open to him, his overtly spiritual and patriotic themes will not play well with voters."

-I was wrong that La La Land would win ALL of the technical awards.  It came out on top for things like direction, cinematography, and production design.  But Hacksaw Ridge won some well deserved technical awards.  

I wrote last week:

"If the previous award shows are any indication, the winners (except for Denzel) are going to use their platform to speak about politics.  This will make for a long and uncomfortable night.  I predict at least 10 President Trump jokes in the opening monologue alone.  This is why I miss Billy Crystal as host: he kept the show light and fun even when it became slow and bogged down."

-For the most part I was correct.

Other thoughts:

-Once again, the ratings were down.  This has everything to do with the movies nominated.  As I wrote when the nominations and their box office rankings:

"This year's Oscars for Best Picture?  Where do they rank?

29.  "Arrival"
65.  "Fences"
47.  "Hacksaw Ridge"
92. "Hell or High Water"
31. "Hidden Figures"
27. "La La Land"
111. "Lion"
75.  "Manchester by the Sea"
115. "Moonlight"
Not a single one is from the top ten of the year and none of them (as of now) have made over $100 million.  

This tells me 2 things:

1.  This will once again be an incredibly low-rated Oscars.  The majority of movie goers do not have a dog in this fight.  Apathy is not a big ratings draw.

2.  The winner will be insignificant.  No one will really care about the winner in a few months.  The Oscars used to be about timeless movies.  But in the last decades they are about the film industry patting itself on the back for either being incredibly clever or send the "right" message.  Spotlight, Birdman, 12 Years a Slave, Argo, The Artist... Are these all films people will still be watching in 10 years?  (Of this list, I would favor Argo, which was an excellent movie.  But Lincoln is the more timeless film of that year.)"

Since then, only La La Land and Arrival have crossed the $100 million mark.  Moonlight still isn't even in the top 100 box office earners of the year.  That means more people saw Bridget Jones' Baby than saw what is supposed to be the best movie of the year!

-Jimmy Kimmel did a decent job as host.  I liked how he tried to step in and take the blame on stage for the Best Picture debacle in order to cover Warren Beatty.

-Speaking of that, it was just embarrassing and painful to watch.  I get the feeling that if the production team for La La Land is ever nominated in this category again, they will pull a strong sympathy vote for Best Picture, regardless of the movie's quality.

-I am torn about the tour bus stunt.  I imagine if I was on the bus and got to see the Oscars and I think I would be thrilled too.  But it also had, as one commentator put it, a "Bring in the dirty peasants for our amusement" vibe.  Also, these people didn't ask to be famous and have their dirty laundry aired all over the internet as has been done to some of those on the bus.

But now the moment you've all been waiting for:


I ended up in the middle of the pack with 15 points.

But this year, we have a TIE for winner:

With a score of 22 points, our winners are:

Undefeated Champion Nicole Koubek
and New Champion Danny Newman

Congratulations to both of you.  You will receive a prize in the coming months.

So, what are your thoughts on the Oscars?


  1. I'm glad that La La Land didn't actually win; it would have been too big a pat on the back for Hollywood itself

    1. But that's what Hollywood does best :)

    2. The honest Oscars trailer predicted Moonlight right; it event threw in unnecessary Trump jokes