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I've received a number of messages from people who are reluctant to play this year because they have seen so few of the movies predicted. I sympathize and this continues to be a real problem for the Academy. This would have been a much more highly rated Oscars if Deadpool had been nominated.
But without further ado here are my choices and my predictions:
Some notes:
BEST PICTURE
I am going a little rogue here and predicting that Lion will win Best Picture. This goes against all the other awards shows, but I am using the best model that predicted last year's Best Picture winner Spotlight that upset against The Revenant (two movie few people really care about anymore anyway, just saying). And based on those predictors, Lion has the edge over La La Land. I am going way out on a limb here and will probably be wrong, but I'll take the shot.
BEST ACTOR
Again, most of the trends are going to Casey Affleck, but since Denzel won the SAG award, I think he is going to get most of the actor votes.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
This should go to Arrival, but it is going to go to Moonlight. For some reason, Moonlight was considered an Original Screenplay with the Writers Guild of America, but it is an Adapted Screenplay for the Oscars.
EMMA STONE
This will be Emma Stone's night. Gosling will not win Best Actor. And if I am right about Best Picture, La La Land will not be Best Picture. So Stone will be the most recognizable winner for their film. This gives me someone to root for because she was my pick for Best Actress for the Kal-El Awards. I'm hoping the Academy finally gets one right.
LA LA LAND TECHNICAL SWEEP
La La Land will win all of the design and technical awards for which it is nominated. It does a fine job in all of its categories, but it will overpower any of the better nominees.
HACKSAW SNUB
Of all the nominated films in the major categories, Hacksaw Ridge is the best that I have seen. And while Mel Gibson has the Hollywood door open to him, his overtly spiritual and patriotic themes will not play well with voters.
POLITICS
If the previous award shows are any indication, the winners (except for Denzel) are going to use their platform to speak about politics. This will make for a long and uncomfortable night. I predict at least 10 President Trump jokes in the opening monologue alone. This is why I miss Billy Crystal as host: he kept the show light and fun even when it became slow and bogged down.
Thoughts?
And if you want to see again what the REAL best achievements in film were this year, click this link to see.
The only Best Picture nominees I've seen this year are Arrival and La La Land. I'll take Arrival.
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