Sunday Best: Summer Box Office Predictions 2024

After going over the movies that are coming out this summer, I always enjoy trying to predict the summer box office for the following year.

Michael Crichton once said that studios spend millions of dollars every year trying to predict box office.  But in the end, it is all guess work.  There is no magical formula and no one gets it right all the time.  

That is certainly the case with me.

In 2016, I got 6 out of 10 right.  By 2017, I improved to 8 out of 10. 2018 was my best year, where I made it to 9 out of 10 and my order of highest grossers was even more accurate.  2019 I did great with the top 7, but the bottom three I had all wrong.  I didn't do it in 2020 because of the pandemic.  2021, my top 3 were all accurate.  If Hotel Transylvania hadn't been pulled, I believe my top 5 would have been accurate.  However I WAY over guessed the appeal of In the Heights and I underestimated Free Guy.  

In 2022, I once again got 8 out of 10, but I only correctly predicted the #2 movie as Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness.  I had no clue that Where the Crawdads Sing would make it to the top 10.

In 2023, I got 7 out of 10, but I didn't correctly predict any in the correct position.

I am going to try again this year.  I may be wrong about my number one and two, but we will see.

1.  Deadpool & Wolverine

The last Deadpool made over $300 million.  The Marvel brand is diminishing, but people still have great enthusiasm and affection for this character.  The fact that the trailers were one of the most watched online and that this film looks like it will be taking potshots at the MCU (not to mention that this is probaly the last time to see Hugh Jackman as Wolverine), I think the demand for this will be high.  If it is even half-way decent, there will be many who will see it multiple times.


2.  Descpicible Me 4

The last movie in the franchise made $370 million.  By the metrics, this should outgross Deadpool & Wolverine, but I'm going with my gut and saying that this will come in 2nd, not first place.  As families are turning away from Disney as a trusted brand, this franchise is looking much more child-friendly.

3. Inside Out 2

 

PIXAR has been on a losing streak.  But people have such fond memories of the original that as long as the movie doesn't follow the tone of Turning Red, then this will be a big hit.  It will depend on word-of- mouth

4.  IF

Choosing an original IP for this high on the scale is risky.  But John Krasinski has a good track record of quality.  Ryan Reynolds will be everywhere because of Deadpool & Wolverine.  And this looks like a fun and innocent film that the whole family can enjoy.

5.  Twisters

The orginal made $241 million in 1996, which would be $468 million today.  This looks like it could be a theatrical experience so it my drive people to the movies.  There are no big stars, but it also looks like it could be a thrilling adventure.


6.  The Fall Guy

Ryan Gosling has built up a lot of goodwill and enthusiasm for his turn as Ken in Barbie.  On top of this, the movie looks like an incredibly fun and goofy action-comedy.  People want to have a good time at the movies and this could be that.

7. The Garfield Movie

I'm going out on a limb on this one.  The first movie that came out 20 years go made only $75 million and the sequel made $28 million.  But this looks like a high-quality animation at the time when people are looking for Disney alternatives.  

8.  Bad Boys: Ride or Die

This is another risk.  This is the first big budget movie since Will Smith hit Chris Rock at the Oscars.  But the last film in the series made $206 million.  I think that as the advertising campaign picks up, people will ignore Smith's behavior and go to see this movie.

9.  A Quiet Place: Day One

Both movies in the series have made over $160 million.  But the sequel made less than the original and that is not the trend we want to see.  Because this is a new take on the series, it may be a slightly bigger draw

10.  Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

I don't think there is as much interest in this as there was when Fury Road came out, but I think that it will different enough from anything out there that it will find an audience.  Fury Road made $154 million and I think this may make about that much.



ALTERNATES


 Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes

I've heard some of my students talk about how they wanted to see that, so there may be interest.

Borderlands

I think this will be terrible, but there is the off chance that it could pull a Guardians of the Galaxy and be unexpectedly good and thus draw a crowd.

Horizon

This could be the mature alternative to all the popcorn fluff.  But it is long shot at best.



Thoughts?