Sunday Best: Summer Box Office Predictions 2023

 After going over the movies that are coming out this summer, I always enjoy trying to predict the summer box office for the following year.

Michael Crichton once said that studios spend millions of dollars every year trying to predict box office.  But in the end, it is all guess work.  There is no magical formula and no one gets it right all the time.  

That is certainly the case with me.

In 2016, I got 6 out of 10 right.  By 2017, I improved to 8 out of 10. 2018 was my best year, where I made it to 9 out of 10 and my order of highest grossers was even more accurate.  2019 I did great with the top 7, but the bottom three I had all wrong.  I didn't do it in 2020 because of the pandemic.  2021, my top 3 were all accurate.  If Hotel Transylvania hadn't been pulled, I believe my top 5 would have been accurate.  However I WAY over guessed the appeal of In the Heights and I underestimated Free Guy.  

In 2022, I once again got 8 out of 10, but I only correctly predicted the #2 movie as Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness.  I had no clue that Where the Crawdads Sing would make it to the top 10.

I am going to try again this year.  I am not going to bet as heavily on Disney and Marvel.  Unless something specatcular happens like Spider-Man: No Way Home, the MCU is beginning to get diminishing box office, as are other Disney properties.  

1.  Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part 1



This is a very risky bet for the biggest movie of the summer.  But I am not going to underestimate Tom Cruise again.  His commitment to giving audiences a thrilling cinematic experience that feels as visceral and real as possible paid huge dividends with Top Gun: Maverick.  This Mission: Impossible film looks to be as spectacular as all of the others.  And all of the overflow of good will from Top Gun is going to raise this movie to be the highest grossing of the franchise.  At least that is my prediction.


2.  The Flash



If this movie was being fueled by the popularity of the title character alone, I think I would place it much lower.  But all of the marketing as been pushing this as the third Michael Keaton Batman movie.  I don't see that strategy changing much between now and the release.  And as we get closer, I think the excitement will build.  If the movie delivers on the Batman parts, I think people will be very happy with this and see it multiple times.

3. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

 

The original film has only grown in esteem as the years have gone by.  On top of this, the Spider-Man brand seems to be the most invincible at Marvel right now.  As long as the story does not go off of a cliff, I think this will have a huge opening and might have legs.


4.  Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny

The reason why people will see this is because it will be the final chance to see Harrison Ford as the iconic character.  While no one is expecting this one to be very good, many are going to see it for that reason alone.  I know that is why I am going to see it.

5.  Fast X




This is also a franchise in decline, but I think that it will have enough box office steam to make it into the top 5.  They are billing this as the beginning of the end, hoping that long-time fans of the series will want to come out and bid it a fond farewell.


6.  Elemental



Unlike a lot of other Disney kids' movies, there doesn't seem to be any hidden adult messages being promoted here.  If parents think that this could be a simple fun time at the movies for the kids, this could be a decent hit.

7. Transformers: Rise of the Beasts

Each of the last three Transformers movies has made less money than the one before it.  It feels like they are trying to do another reboot of the series, with new characters and driving home the classic look from Generation 1.  I don't think this will be a bomb, but it will not shatter box office records.

8.  The Little Mermaid


Maybe I am too pessimistic on this.  Live-Action Disney remakes tend to make a ton of money.  But I think fan fatigue along with Disney controversies have made people a little gun shy.  But I don't know if that is just my perception as a pop culture insider and not the view of the normal movie-going public.

9.  Oppenheimer


This is my counter-programing choice.  If people want something more dramatic and cerebral this season, they know they can count of Christopher Nolan.  Even though Tenet was a bit inaccessible, Nolan still has enough good will to draw people in, especially with this World War II historical drama with an all-star cast.


10.  Blue Beetle

If The Flash does well, the good will could spill over to this movie.  The action looks fun and exciting.  If they can market this movie correctly, it could bring in the kids right before school starts up again.




ALTERNATES


 Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem


I think it looks terrible, but I know little kids are excited for it.

Barbie


If they can find the right tone, this will be a hit.  I just don't think they understand what kind of film they are trying to make.  It looks like a fun movie for kids, but the humor is too adult.

No Hard Feelings


On the strength of the trailer, this might be a sleeper hit.  People want to go to the movies for laughs and escapist humor.  This might be that ticket.




Thoughts?