The Oscars snuck up on me. Back in my day, I remember when the ceremony wasn't until mid-March. Luckily, I cleared my schedule and have popped a big bowl of popcorn and I am now ready.
Before tonight's broadcast, here are a few of my thoughts and predictions.
The problem with predicting the winners is that you cannot rely your own judgment for quality. The best nominee should win, but the arts are not like sports. The judgment of the voters is influenced by several factors, many of which the average movie-goer is unaware. Back in 1999, most viewers were certain that Saving Private Ryan was going to win Best Picture until Shakespeare in Love walked away with the award. Miramax had been campaigning Academy voters hard and most analysts believe that was a deciding factor in the upset. But most of us who simply root for the best movie or our favorite movie are not privy to the behind-the-scenes politics.
I agree completely with the mighty John Nolte who said that the only criteria for choosing Best Picture is to pick the film that people will still be watching in 30 years. The last few Best Picture winners, even the ones I liked, do not fit that category. So if you want to predict, you have to do more analysis.
As I said, predictions are less about the movie itself but about how the movie is perceived by Academy voters.
BEST PICTURE
Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood
Joker got the award on this blog for best movie. It is not a pleasant experience, but it is a powerful one that uses all the elements of filmmaking (directing, cinematography, acting, music, etc) to create a full and engrossing experience.
I am going out on a limb a bit here. The movie that has the momentum is 1917, which is an excellent film. But don't count out Parasite. The Academy got hit with a lot of criticism for their lack of diveristy in this year's nominees. I have not seen Parasite, so I cannot vouch for its quality. But when reading the entertainment press when the movie won big at the SAG awards, it told me that his could have a big influence on voters.
But here is why I think Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood is going to win:
1. Tarantino's Penultimate Film
Quentin Tarantino has stated publicly that he is only going to make 10 movies. According to most ways you count it, Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood is his 9th film. Since Tarantino is hit and miss, you cannot count on his last movie to be good. This may be the last chance for this influential and important filmmaker to make a Best Picture winner.
2. Hollywood Loves Itself
Movies about the entertainment industry are popular with voters in the entertainment industry. Even boring films like The Artist win a Best Picture Oscar because they speak to the experience of the voters.
3. It's Actually Good.
I was lukewarm on the movie when I first saw it. But about two weeks ago I bought it and I've watched it at least four times again. This is a film that grows on you the more you sit with it. Some movies lose their appeal after the freshness wears off. That is not the case with this film.
BEST ACTOR
I would be shocked if Joaquin did not win this award. Even for people who hated the film, there is almost universal acclaim, including from me, for what he did with this part.
BEST ACTRESS
Originally, I predicted Scarlett Johansson, but I am officially switching my vote to Renee Zellweger. I've been watching the other awards shows and she has been cleaning up. I haven't seen the movie, but Zellweger is apparently not only very good, but she shows the ugly side of Judy Garland. Showing the ugly side of a character is a good way to increase the odds of a Best Actress award. I would have gone with Saoirse Ronan.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
This is Brad Pitt's year. Best Supporting Actor is usually an award that is given not only for the given performance but in recognition of a large body of work (which is why it was shocking when Sylvester Stallone didn't win). It doesn't hurt that he is great in the movie.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Kathy Bates was fantastic. Florence Pugh should win. But Laura Dern is going to win. Voters love her performance as a tough as nails divorce lawyer who helps tear a family apart. Her performance is good, but it is overhyped.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
1917 is a marvel of cinematography and I would be shocked if it didn't win.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Originally I said Jojo Rabbit, but the more I watch Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood, the more I think that the costumes did such a good job of creating a feel for the era and gave the movie such a unique sense of taste, so I am switching my vote.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
It should be Little Women, but because Jojo Rabbit got nominated in this category despite it having a terrible screenplay, I think it will win.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
This is always Tarantino's category to lose. Whether or not you like his writing, he makes stories that are unpredictable. Sometimes this works out horribly (Hateful 8, Inglorious Basterds), but it also can work out well, as in the case of Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
John Williams should just in every year. While momentum is going with he composer of Joker, I am banking on the fact that this is Williams last time composing for Star Wars and this will be in recognition of that.
BEST DIRECTOR
Todd Philips did something memorable and fantastic in world-building an urban hell in Joker, but if I am right about Best Picture, then all the credit will go to Tarantino.
Those are my thoughts on some of the categories.
You can still cast your vote before the broadcast here:
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