Oscar Nominations 2020

So the nominees were announced this past week for the 92nd Academy Awards.

These awards remain the most prestigious in film.  And while many of you, dear readers, are of the opinion that all awards shows are terrible and should simply be shunned, it is my perpetual hope that Hollywood will reform itself and once again nominate movies that matter.

For example, here are the top 10 grossing films of the year:

Avengers: Endgame
The Lion King
Toy Story 4
Frozen II
Captain Marvel
Star Wars Episode IX - The Rise of Skywalker
Spider-Man: Far From Home
Aladdin
Joker
IT: Chapter 2

Keep in mind that I have always maintained that box office alone is not a statement about a film's quality.  My own top ten of the year include:

1. Joker
2. Avengers: Endgame

3. Star Wars Episode IX - The Rise of Skywalker

4. Little Women
5. Richard Jewell
6. Toy Story 4
7. Spider-Man: Far From Home
8. Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood
9. SHAZAM!
10. John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum

Only five of the top ten films belong to the highest grossers.   However I will say that each of these movies has made at least $100 million dollars domestic, except for Little Women (which may get there with Oscar buzz) and Richard Jewell (which is sadly a box office bomb).  This bolsters my thesis that, for the most part, audiences will respond to quality films.  

This year's Oscars for Best Picture?  Where do they rank?

9. “Joker” - $333 million
18. “Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood” - $141 million
27. “Ford vs. Ferrari” - $107 million
72. “Little Women” - $37 million 
97. “Parasite” - $22 million
104. “Jojo Rabbit” - $21 million
231 “1917” - 1.3 million (though this was just released)
“The Irishman” - n/a
"Marriage Story"- n/a

Three years ago, not  a single one is from the top ten of the year and none of the nominees have made over $100 million by the time they were nominated.

Two years ago an improvement.  We had two genuine hits: Dunkirk and Get Out.  This year we have the highest grosser of the year, Black Panther, has a nomination for Best Picture.  This has not happened since 2010 with Toy Story 3.  The last time the highest grosser won Best Picture was in 2003 with The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King.

Last year you had three massive hits with Black Panther, Bohemian Rhapsody, and A Star is Born.  But you have a movie with a lot of buzz like Roma that has such a small box office that I cannot find how much it made (the movie produced by Netflix and was not intended for a wide box office).

This year we have one phenomenon (Joker), two decent hits (Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood and Ford vs. Ferrari), three critical darlings with limited box office and two Netflix movies.  It is difficult to gauge the popularity of Netflix films because the company keeps close hold on their data.

I don't think the ratings for this year's Oscars will be particularly good.  If they had nominated Avengers: Endgame, then you would have had a huge viewership, just like they did when they nominated Titanic and The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King.  If Black Panther could score a nomination, certainly the highest grossing film of all time that acted as the incredibly satisfying finale to a more than 10-year franchise of films could earn a nod.  But, alas, no.

As I wrote last year:

In fact, name 7 of the last 14 Best Picture winners off the top of your head.  Go!

Okay, if you couldn't do that, name the last 4.

Maybe I am being unfair, but does anyone even remember The Shape of Water, Moonlight, Spotlight, Birdman, and 12 Years a Slave.  That isn't to say these aren't good movies, but are they the ones you remember as the BEST from the last 5 years?

I suppose you could add The Green Book to this list.  While I thoroughly enjoyed that film, it only made about $32 million at the box office and was not something widely seen.

So below are my thoughts on some (not all) of this year's nominees.  

And next week, I will open it up if you would like to participate in this year's Oscar Game!

Best Picture:

“Ford v Ferrari”
“The Irishman”
“Jojo Rabbit”
“Joker”
“Little Women”
“Marriage Story”
“1917”
“Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”
“Parasite”

Joker is the clear breakout hit, but I think that Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood is going to keep gaining momentum.  Tarantino has said he is only directing one more movie and so far he has not won a Best Picture or Best Director award.  My feeling is that since this is a movie that people in Hollywood love (particularly as it is a love letter to Hollywood) and they don't want to miss out on honor Tarantino, I think this will be the year for Tarantino's film.

Performance by an actor in a leading role

Antonio Banderas, “Pain and Glory”
Leonardo DiCaprio, “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”
Adam Driver, “Marriage Story”
Joaquin Phoenix, “Joker”
Jonathan Pryce, “The Two Popes”

-All of the buzz is with Phoenix this year and out of the nominees here, he does deserve it.  But there may be an upset if Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood begins to sweep.

Performance by an actor in a supporting role

Tom Hanks, “A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood”
Anthony Hopkins, “The Two Popes”
Al Pacino, “The Irishman”
Joe Pesci, “The Irishman”
Brad Pitt, “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”

-Hands down, this is Pitt's to lose.  I have not seen Hopkins performance, but Pesci and Pacino have been better.  Hanks is excellent and would be a good choice, but Pitt owned this movie.

Performance by an actress in a leading role

Cynthia Erivo, “Harriet”
Scarlett Johansson, “Marriage Story”
Saoirse Ronan, “Little Women”
Charlize Theron, “Bombshell”
Renee Zellweger, “Judy”

-I so wanted to see Harriet but I missed out.  Just from the trailers, Erivo seemed powerful.  Zellweger has momentum from winning the Golden Globe.  I'm glad my choice for best actress, Soirse Ronan, is nominated.  But I have a feeling that Johansson might just pull off an upset for Marriage Story.  I didn't like the film, but she was good in it.

Performance by an actress in a supporting role

Kathy Bates, “Richard Jewell”
Laura Dern, “Marriage Story”
Scarlett Johansson, “Jojo Rabbit”
Florence Pugh, “Little Women”
Margot Robbie, “Bombshell”

-I was genuinely happy that the Academy took my advice and nominated Pugh for her performance in Little Women.  I also was pleasently surprised that Bates was given a nod, but I think that Dern is going to win.

Best animated feature film of the year

“How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World,” Dean DeBlois
“I Lost My Body,” Jeremy Clapin
“Klaus,” Sergio Pablos
“Missing Link,” Chris Butler
“Toy Story 4,”  Josh Cooley

-The only movie on this list that I saw was Toy Story 4, which was a fine epilogue to the series.

Achievement in directing

Martin Scorsese, “The Irishman”
Todd Phillips, “Joker”
Sam Mendes, “1917”
Quentin Tarantino, “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”
Bong Joon Ho, “Parasite”

Greta Gerwig should have been nominated, but was not.  Todd Philips should win for his claustrophobic journey into urban madness, but I think Tarantino is due.

Adapted Screenplay:

“The Irishman,” Steven Zaillian
“Jojo Rabbit,” Taika Waititi
“Joker,” Todd Phillips, Scott Silver
“Little Women,” Greta Gerwig
“The Two Popes,” Anthony McCarten

I think that this should definitely go to Gerwig for her fresh take on the classic novel.  But I have the feeling that they may give it to Waititi for the sheer audacity of his premise.

Original Screenplay:

“Knives Out,” Rian Johnson
“Marriage Story,” Noah Baumbach
“1917,” Sam Mendes and Krysty Wilson-Cairns
“Once Upon a Time in Hollywood,” Quentin Tarantino
“Parasite,” Bong Joon-ho, Jin Won Han

Again, this will be Tarantino's night.  Even though he has won twice already, I think he will win again.

Original Score:

“Joker,” Hildur Guðnadóttir
“Little Women,” Alexandre Desplat
“Marriage Story,” Randy Newman
“1917,” Thomas Newman
“Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker,” John Williams

This might go to Guðnadóttir, who does give a haunting score.  But the Academy might want to recognize Williams for his entire body of work on Star Wars.

SNUBS
-Greta Gerwig should have gotten a nomination for Best Director
-Avengers: Endgame needed much more recognition, particularly Robert Downey Jr.'s fantastic performance as Tony Stark.

Thoughts?