The Kids' Table at the Oscars

Yesterday the Academy Awards made several announcements.  The most welcome ones involved shortening the telecast, which always goes way too long.

But they also announced this very nebulous category: Achievement in Popular Film.

There are many reasons why this is not a good idea.  The chief among them is that this is tacit acknowledgement that the movies that they are holding up as the "Best" in film are so far disconnected from their audience that they need to create a whole new category for movies that people have actually seen.

I went through and did a breakdown of the box office of the Academy Award Winner for Best Picture since 1980: (numbers courtesy of BoxOfficeMojo.com)

Year	Best Picture	Box Office Rank	Higest Grosser
1980	Ordinary People	11	The Empire Strikes Back
1981	Chariots of Fire	7	Raiders of the Lost Ark
1982	Ghandi	12	ET: Extra-Terrestrial
1983	Terms of Endearment	2	Return of the Jedi
1984	Amadeus	12	Bevery Hills Cop
1985	Out of Africa	5	Back to the Future
1986	Platoon	3	Top Gun
1987	The Last Emperor	25	Three Men and a Baby
1988	Rain Man	1	Rain Man
1989	Driving Miss Daisy	8	Batman
1990	Dances With Wolves	3	Home Alone
1991	The Silence of the Lambs	4	Terminator 2: Judgment Day
1992	Unforgiven	11	Aladdin
1993	Schindler's List	9	Jurassic Park
1994	Forrest Gump	1	Forrest Gump
1995	Braveheart	18	Toy Story
1996	The English Patient	19	Independence Day
1997	Titanic	1	Titanic
1998	Shakespeare in Love	18	Saving Private Ryan
1999	American Beauty	13	Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace
2000	Gladiator	4	How the Grinch Stole Christmas
2001	A Beautiful Mind	11	Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone
2002	Chicago	10	Spider-Man
2003	The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King	1	The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
2004	Million Dollary Baby	24	Shrek 2
2005	Crash	49	Star Wars: Episode III: Revenge of the Sith
2006	The Departed	15	Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
2007	No Country for Old Men	36	Spider-Man 3
2008	Slumdog Millionaire	16	The Dark Knight
2009	The Hurt Locker	116	Avatar
2010	The King's Speech	18	Toy Story 3
2011	The Artist	71	Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
2012	Argo	22	The Avengers
2013	12 Years A Slave	62	The Hunger Games: Catching Fire
2014	Birdman	78	American Sniper
2015	Spotlight	62	Star Wars: Episode VII - The Force Awakens
2016	Moonlight	92	Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
2017	The Shape of Water	46	Star Wars: Episode VIII - The Last Jedi

When you look at this you can see that the average box office rank of a Best Picture is 24.  And only 10% of the time was the highest grosser the Best Picture.

But if you dig into the numbers and look at last 10 years alone, that number is 58.  And that means that on average, the general movie going audience saw 57 other movies in the theater beside the Best Picture winner.  And none of those had the Best Picture as the Highest Grosser.  

Compare that to the 1980's, when the average box office rank was 9.

Now, many in the industry complain because the cinemas are flooded with sequels and franchise films.  So I made a chart controlling for that factor.  I left in remakes and first films in a franchise, since you don't know if you have a franchise until the first one is a hit.  These are the results:

Year	Best Picture	Box Office Rank (non-sequel, non-franchise)	Higest Grosser (non-sequel, non-franchise)
1980	Ordinary People	9	9 to 5
1981	Chariots of Fire	6	Raiders of the Lost Ark
1982	Ghandi	10	ET: Extra-Terrestrial
1983	Terms of Endearment	1	Terms of Endearment
1984	Amadeus	10	Bevery Hills Cop
1985	Out of Africa	3	Back to the Future
1986	Platoon	3	Top Gun
1987	The Last Emperor	24	Three Men and a Baby
1988	Rain Man	1	Rain Man
1989	Driving Miss Daisy	4	Batman
1990	Dances With Wolves	3	Home Alone
1991	The Silence of the Lambs	3	Robin Hood: Prince of Thieves
1992	Unforgiven	8	Aladdin
1993	Schindler's List	9	Jurassic Park
1994	Forrest Gump	1	Forrest Gump
1995	Braveheart	13	Toy Story
1996	The English Patient	18	Independence Day
1997	Titanic	1	Titanic
1998	Shakespeare in Love	17	Saving Private Ryan
1999	American Beauty	10	The Sixth Sense
2000	Gladiator	3	How the Grinch Stole Christmas
2001	A Beautiful Mind	7	Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone
2002	Chicago	5	Spider-Man
2003	The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King	1	The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
2004	Million Dollary Baby	18	The Passion of the Christ
2005	Crash	44	The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, The Witch, and the Wardrobe
2006	The Departed	9	Night at the Museum
2007	No Country for Old Men	25	Transformers
2008	Slumdog Millionaire	11	Iron Man
2009	The Hurt Locker	101	Avatar
2010	The King's Speech	12	Alice in Wonderland
2011	The Artist	54	The Help
2012	Argo	12	The Hunger Games
2013	12 Years A Slave	44	Frozen
2014	Birdman	58	American Sniper
2015	Spotlight	40	Inside Out
2016	Moonlight	74	The Secret Life of Pets
2017	The Shape of Water	21	Beauty and the Beast

When you look at this you can see that the average box office rank of a Best Picture is 18.  The percent of highest grossers winning Best Picture goes up to 13%

But once again you see in the last 10 years,  that number is number is still an abysmal 42.  Once Again, none of those had the Best Picture as the Highest Grosser.  

For the 1980's, that average improves to a 7.

And just so that I show I'm being fair, I've gone back and done a box office analysis of what films win the Catholic Skywalker "KAL-EL" for Best Picture.  My chart only goes back to 1997, but I am not afraid of including franchises and sequels

Year	Catholic Skywalker Best Picture	Box Office Rank	Higest Grosser
1997	Titanic	1	Titanic
1998	Life is Beautiful	35	Saving Private Ryan
1999	The Green Mile	12	Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace
2000	Cast Away	2	How the Grinch Stole Christmas
2001	Memento	88	Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone
2002	The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers	2	Spider-Man
2003	The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King	1	The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
2004	The Passion of the Christ	3	Shrek 2
2005	Star Wars: Episode III: Revenge of the Sith	1	Star Wars: Episode III: Revenge of the Sith
2006	Click	13	Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
2007	Juno	15	Spider-Man 3
2008	The Dark Knight	1	The Dark Knight
2009	Up	5	Avatar
2010	Inception	6	Toy Story 3
2011	Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2	1	Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
2012	Les Miserables	18	The Avengers
2013	Man of Steel	5	The Hunger Games: Catching Fire
2014	Captain America: The Winter Soldier	4	American Sniper
2015	Star Wars: Episode VII - The Force Awakens	1	Star Wars: Episode VII - The Force Awakens
2016	Batman v. Superman: Dawn of Justice	8	Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
2017	Logan	11	Star Wars: Episode VIII - The Last Jedi

My average is 11, though it is skewed because Memento made so little money at the box office.  But I do have 29% of the highest grossers as Best Picture.  

And in the last 10 years, my average is 6th at the box office.

My point is that no, not every hit movie is necessarily Best Picture quality.  I would never think to nominate How the Grinch Stole Christmas.   And some obscure films, like Memento, really are worthy of the highest praise.

But somewhere 2005, you can see a radical shift in the Academy focusing on more obscure films, taking for themselves the role of "taste-makers" telling the plebes what is artistic cinema and what is not.  Since 2011, none of the Best Picture winners have been in the top 20.  And if you control of franchise films, it has still been that way since 2013.

Hollywood knows there is a disconnect because the ratings for the Oscar telecast have been declining, last year's being the worst.  So now, they have decided to create a "Kids' Table" at the Oscars for the movies that we, the unsophisticated rabble, enjoy.  

But by creating such a distinction, all they are doing is showing how irrelevant the Oscars continue to become.