Summer Box Office Predictions 2026

  After going over the movies that are coming out this summer, I always enjoy trying to predict the summer box office for the following year.

Michael Crichton once said that studios spend millions of dollars every year trying to predict box office.  But in the end, it is all guess work.  There is no magical formula and no one gets it right all the time.  

That is certainly the case with me.

In 2016, I got 6 out of 10 right.  By 2017, I improved to 8 out of 10. 2018 was my best year, where I made it to 9 out of 10 and my order of highest grossers was even more accurate.  2019 I did great with the top 7, but the bottom three I had all wrong.  I didn't do it in 2020 because of the pandemic.  2021, my top 3 were all accurate.  If Hotel Transylvania hadn't been pulled, I believe my top 5 would have been accurate.  However I WAY over guessed the appeal of In the Heights and I underestimated Free Guy.  

In 2022, I once again got 8 out of 10, but I only correctly predicted the #2 movie as Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness.  I had no clue that Where the Crawdads Sing would make it to the top 10.

In 2023 through 2025, I got 7 out of 10, but I didn't correctly predict any in the correct position.  

I am going to try again this year.  I may be wrong about my number one and two, but we will see.

Some years I include April movies, but this year I am not.  So hits like Super Mario Galaxy and Michael will not be on this list.  This will only cover May-August.







1.  Toy Story 5

Every Toy Story sequel has made more money than the one before it.  Toy Story 4 made $434 million, and that was with tepid word of mouth.  This movie looks like it has something incredibly interesting to say, so I am thinking it will do even better.  

2. Spider-Man: Brand New Day

 

The last MCU Spider-Man film made over $800 million domestic.  But I think that was hyped as an Avengers level event.  I think this one will do closer to the other films in this series, which would be around $300-$400 million.

3.  Minions and Monsters

The last Minions movie was the highest grossing in the series at $370 million.  I don't see this franchise fatiguing or slowing down.

4.  The Odyssey

I don't bet against Christopher Nolan.  He turned a historical drama about the father of the atom bomb into a runaway box office smash.  Now he has one of the oldest and most revered adventures in human history to tell along with an all-star cast.  I saw a six-minute preview with the sacking of Troy and it looks amazing.  

5.  Moana

I would have placed this lower, but I did not predict that Lilo & Stitch would be the highest grossing film of last summer.  There is an appetite in the movie-going public for these Disney live-action films (Snow White being the exception).

6. Mandalorian and Grogu

The Star Wars franchise is not what it used to be.  Be even the lukewarm reception of Solo: A Star Wars Story still made over $200 million.  If this movie can deliver a fun adventure for the whole family, it will do well (as long as it isn't like The Acolyte)

5.  Masters of the Universe

This is a big gamble on my part.  I know that these toys still sell with the little kids and Gen-Xers have a lot of nostalgia.  It will depend on word of mouth, but if it is even half-way decent, I think it could do very well.

8.  Disclosure Day

It has been several years since Spielberg has made a great movie.  This sci-fi thriller has all the elements that could make this a great comeback film.  I am rooting for him and I'm hoping it will be tense, thought-provoking, heart-felt and original.

9.  The Devil Wears Prada 2

There is still a giant fan-base for the first one that I think will definetely carry over into the sequel.  I don't think it will do quite as well as Barbie, but this might be the woman-focused hit of the summer.

10. Supergirl

A lot of people have been bagging on this movie, but as long as the focus on the fun adventure aspect of the character, I think people will enjoy it and maybe see it multiple times.


ALTERNATES


 Scary Movie 6

People are betting bigger on this movie doing well, but the trailers are not just naughty, they are downright vulgar.  I don't know if that will translate as funny.

Paw Patrol: The Dino Movie

I can see a lot of parents taking their little ones to see this as their first movie.

 
The End of Oak Street

This is my long-shot.  I don't know much of anything about this.  But if they have a family adventure that parents and kids can enjoy, it might work.  Although being released so late in the summer may hurt its box office.


Thoughts?