Friday, May 6, 2016

Summer Box Office Predictions

With the opening of Captain America Civil War today, we are officially in the Summer Movie Season.

Over at Screen Junkies, they have an annual tradition of making predictions of what the top ten highest grossing films of the Summer will be.  I find this a fascinating challenge and I am usually wrong.  I would not have predicted Jurassic World would beat out the 2nd Avengers movie and I would never have predicted Guardians of the Galaxy would be as big as it was.

So with little hope of being correct, here are my predictions for the top grossers:

1.  Captain America: Civil War
-The first movie of the season has a big advantage and unlike Age of Ultron, the earlier reviews of Civil War are glowing.

2.  Finding Dori
-The first one is a classic and if it is half as good as the first, it should get good word of mouth

3.  The Secret Lives of Pets
-I think this is going to be the suprise hit.  Little kids really love the trailer and this one will be for them what Minions was last year.

4.  Independence Day: Resurgence
-This might do better than #4 if it is good.  But like with Jurassic World, the heavy nostalgia factor mixed with thrilling spectacal might makes this one a big it.  At least I'm hoping that this is good.

5.  Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows
-The last one wasn't very good, but it made money.  They are also doing a lot of fan servicing in this one, so they may pull in some more box office.

6.  Warcraft
-This movie looks a little too CGI-unrealistic to me and it has no big names.  But if it has any quality, it could have legs.

7.  X-Men: Apocalypse
-The last X-Men cracked the top 10, but this one is only the First Class cast, and their film only made it in the top 20.  But there might be enough residual good will from Days of Future Past to make this a hit.

8.  Alice: Through the Looking Glass
-Didn't see the first one but it made money.

9.  Central Intelligence
-The Rock makes money and this action comedy could resonate with audiences.

10. Suicide Squad.
-The darker tone could ride the Deadpool coat-tails, but I don't think it will do nearly as well.

What are your thoughts?

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